MathArena publishes every graded attempt, so its AIME 2026 leaderboard can be tested directly. Resampling the 30 problems, 25 of the 31 models with full coverage have a 95 percent rank interval that includes first place, and an exact paired test separates only one of the 29 imperfect models from a perfect score. Sixteen problems were solved by every model on every attempt, and five carry 80 percent of the spread. Intervals computed over problems rather than attempts run a median 1.7 times wider, because they answer a broader question.